When Guidance and Forecasts Align

Another morning with remarkable agreement between the two operational regional models (HWRF and HMON) and the official NHC forecasts (red). Both models are skimming the bottom of the Cat 4 wind speed, and the official forecast is putting it in the middle of Cat 3.  Not sure why the experimental HAFS model does not have the right initial condition.  Something to check over the winter.

Last 5 posts by Scott Glenn

• Early Season in the Mid Atlantic - June 17th, 2021
• Disturbance in the Gulf - June 16th, 2021
• Hurricane Gliders 2021 - May 3rd, 2021
• Hurricane Iota - November 16th, 2020
• Hurricane Eta - Low Wind Shear, High SST - November 2nd, 2020