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As the world warms, ecosystems are changing. Understanding the ecological consequences is critical as the magnitude and pace of the predicted warming will produce novel climate conditions that do not exist in the contemporary world. Even moderate warming scenarios predict major extinctions. The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is undergoing the most dramatic climate change on Earth (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). The WAP region has experienced a significant winter warming during the past half century (5.4 times the global average). This warming has shortened the sea ice season and perennial sea ice is gone. The maritime system of the northern WAP is expanding southward, displacing the continental, polar system of the southern WAP while 87% of the glaciers are in retreat. Associated with this warming has been a climate induced migration in the WAP ecosystem spanning the primary, secondary, and higher trophic levels (Fig. 3). We do not understand the drivers of the temperature changes or the resulting ecosystem changes, but we know the decline of ice is driving one of the largest and most rapid climate induced shifts in a marine ecosystem on Earth (Fig. 1).
The Palmer LTER is dedicated to study the processes underlying these changes and its impact on the ecosystem.
The Palmer LTER is now building on its previous research, with an emphasis on process studies and modeling to elucidate the mechanistic links between teleconnections, climate change, physical oceanographic forcing and ecosystem dynamics. To guide our research, we hypothesize that regional warming and sea ice decline associated with historical and on-going climate migration in the northern part of our study area have altered key ecological relationships, leading to changes in species distributions, increasing trophic mismatches and changes in habitat, food availability, ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycling (Fig. 4). We will conduct targeted process studies linked to numerical model simulations. We will also test the hypothesis that deep cross-shelf canyons characterizing our core study region (200x600 km) are focal areas for ecosystem processes that result in predictable, elevated food resources for top-predators such as penguins, influencing their foraging ecology and distribution of breeding and wintering populations (Fig. 5).
Scientists involved in the project
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Hugh Ducklow (PI) - Marine Biological Lab |
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Doug Martinson - Lamont Doherty & Columbia University |
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William Frazer - Polar Oceans Research Group |
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Debbie Steinberg - Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences
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Sharon Stammerjohn - Columbia University
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Oscar Schofield - RU COOL |
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Scott Doney - WHOI |
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Karen Baker - Scripps |
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 Fig 1. Mean Winter Temperatures
Black British Faraday and Ukraine Vernadsky Station. Red is United States Palmer Station. The decadal warming trend along the West Antarctic Peninsula. The trend shows a dramatic warming over the last 70 years that represents Earth’s most rapid documented winter warming.
 Fig 2. The Antarctic study area of the LTER. The grid is occupied by annual cruises and gliders. These efforts are complemented with studies at Palmer station (red circle).
 Fig 3. Some of the major players in the West Peninsular which the LTER is studying
 Fig. 4 Using several ocean color satellites, decadal changes in the primary productivity have been observed. Chlorophyll has increased in the south and it has decreased in the northern waters
 Fig. 5 The summer foraging areas for Adelie penguins
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